KEY MARKET INDICATORS as of April 3, 2017
Population Growth and Home Price Appreciation
2016 Population Growth – According to the latest estimates from the Census Bureau, 277.1 million people lived in the nation’s metropolitan areas in 2016, which is an increase of 2.3 million (0.8%) from 2015. The nation’s population continued to migrate from the Northeast and the Midwest to the South and the West. Because of slower natural population growth due to births and deaths, migration is becoming a more important source of population growth. Metropolitan areas from Texas, Florida, Carolinas, California, and Washington have been the main beneficiaries of this trend. Metros in these states reported faster population growth again in 2016. Metropolitan areas in the Midwest and the Northeast reported slower growth.
– Florida metros – Orlando, Jacksonville, Tampa, and Miami were among the fastest growing large metros in the country.
– Texas metros – Austin, San Antonio, Dallas, and Houston were among the fastest growing large metros.
– North Carolina – Raleigh and Charlotte were among the fastest growing large metros, but growth was slower than in previous years.
– Midwest Metros – Pittsburg, Cleveland, Chicago, and Detroit reported population losses in 2016.
Faster population growth is one of the key drivers of housing demand and home price appreciation. Housing demand is growing faster in metros with faster population growth while housing demand is contracting or growing much slower in metros with slower population growth. Among the 50 largest metros, the 10 fastest growing metros had average population growth rate 2.2% vs. population declines for the 10-slowest growing metros that averaged 1.3%. As a result, faster-growing metros reported faster average home price appreciation compared to slower-growing metros. The 10 fastest growing metros reported average home price gains of 8.5% in 2016 vs. 4.1% for the 10 slowest growing metros.